Disruptive Analysis is well-known for its criticism and skepticism of many new technologies, such as RCS messaging and NFC mobile payments. Thus is may come as a surprise that it now suggests a technology is being under-hyped, and has upgraded its WebRTC adoption forecasts that were only a few months old.
It now predicts:
  • 875m devices with WebRTC support at end-2013 (upgraded from original forecasts of 810m)
  • 1 billion device threshold crossed in Q1’2014 rather than Q2’2014
  • 3.9bn devices supporting WebRTC by end-2016, upgraded from 3.4bn
  • Active user base (individuals) for WebRTC to exceed 1.5bn people by end-2016

The new forecasts come from the Q2 Update for the Disruptive Analysis WebRTC report, the first edition of which came out in February. That report was the first comprehensive study of the market for WebRTC, spanning telco, enterprise and consumer domains. Having covered WebRTC since June 2011, Disruptive Analysis is the leading analyst & consulting house in this sector. The Q2 upgrades reflect the speed of emergence of WebRTC in Firefox and also Chrome-for-Android, plus continued growth of mobile API/SDK providers enabling WebRTC to be integrated into smartphone and tablet apps directly.  (Note that Disruptive Analysis’ forecasts differ from some others in that estimation of primary browsers is a core step. Many users have multiple browsers installed on PCs or devices, but only use one regularly – a gating factor on realistic addressable WebRTC users for developers).